Anti-fragility

Fragility is often associated with being vulnerable and 2020 has shown all of us how fragile we can be. Let’s face it: the “wait and see” approach has come to an end!

They keep saying we need to be resistant and stay put with little or no movement in order to sail through the storm.

Individuals are now embracing a new normal with faster technology but at the same time, companies are forced to slow down in order to survive.

What if we can transform your enterprise that is not just hedging from crisis but benefit from the situation and grow? Let’s think about the concept of Anti-fragility that I acquired from Taleb and his amazing book (second to “The Black Swan”) and let’s digest it and use at our or the organizational level advantage.

Anti-fragility is the anti-thesis of fragility, something that benefits from shock. Think about Hydra from Greek mythology, the monster with many heads. If you cut one, two will grow.

The best example of anti-fragility is the evolutionary process, with each shock, evolution forces life to mutate and become better suited for the environment.

In our daily lives, we often experience anti-fragility without even realizing it, exercising, fasting, cold or hot exposure are all known to be beneficial for our body (aka hormesis) . When confronted with stressors, our anti-fragile system will overcompensate and create a stronger body. Essentially, shock and stressors strengthen the anti-fragile system by forcing it to build extra strength.

Think of a vaccine. A small dose of sickness triggers an immune response. Our organism learns to fight, our body becomes stronger.
There is another intriguing concept — how tranquillity and tranquil environment may also lead to fragility. In the past year, governments around the world try to “save” the economy and keep crisis at bay.

They offer subsidies, low interest rates and anything to remove volatility, but is this the right way to go?
Some may not agree, because this well-intended assistance may result in even bigger shocks in the future, and the system become even more fragile.

In essence, anti-fragility is something that propelled human progress from the earliest time. Modern societies have the tendency to dismantle volatile environment when on the contrary, it is vital for anti-fragility.

Recently I ran a very high-level analysis on approximately 1000 business owners and their approach to the current crisis. After calls and surveys I would advocate that, the majority of the businesses are rather conservative, at least 80% of the cases are just waiting for the storm to pass; Despite proclaiming to find opportunities in the threat, the overall approach is still quite passive.

Then we have a virtuoso 10–15% trying to respond with a quick pivot to take advantage of the situation and try to make the best out of the moment, hedging and somewhat riding some waves.

At last, there is a 5% of visionary-forward businesses that are doing something more. They are reading through the changes that Covid-19 has brought and how certain trends will be reshaped. Their approach is much deeper, no quick pivoting but rather “sharpening the sword for future battles”. Those visionary are studying how the current pandemic will reshape the economy and how new trends will form.

Here’s my take on how life has changed for the better in the past 12 months and some predictions of future trends to come:

• We learned to shop online and order food online — a lot. We used to be weary of sharing credit card online but now it has become a fear of the past
• Remote working has been legitimized
• Urbanization will likely slow down, countryside will be appreciated more and remote working from the countryside will become popular with fast wifi connections
• We have become more aware of the importance of good personal hygiene
• We are trying harder to healthy habits for nutrition and fitness to strengthen the immune system
• Virtual workouts have become much more accepted. It used to be considered boring, but with the pandemic, the online experience has improved dramatically to deliver a close-to-offline experience
• Gyms will probably become interactive spaces rather than workout places
• Because less office space is needed, prices of commercial real estate may drop — it’s a matter of time
• People will travel less for work and more for fun, since remote working will be possible
• After one year of zoom classes for kids, online education has become widely adapted. A mix of online and offline education is definitely going to become norm for older children/teens.
• We have re-discovered social interactions, we missed gathering with our friends and we will do it more meaningfully. Meeting friends triggers oxytocin release and this will come back stronger

My calling to visionary entrepreneurs is to stop the “wait and see”, pivot if you can but dig deep into the tectonic shift that this pandemic is bringing, not just in business and economy but also in society and humanity.

Forget sailing through storm. Ride the waves and enjoy the anti-fragility!